RICE: The Population Factor
Though this blog would seem to focus on the element of population as a factor affecting the rice issue, I think I'll try to widen the scope by covering the issue of Demand, in general.
It has often been said that the rice issue, or more particularly the failure or success in making and implementing policies on it, could spell the fate of any administration.* This is so because the Philippine population (at least about 85% of it, because some 15% are corn eaters), are rice consumers. Rice is the main component of any filipino meal. Everybody knows about how a Pinoy travelling abroad would go out of his way to look for a chinese or Asian restaurant if only to able to eat rice. Sometimes, its said that some Pinoys feel a little weak after going for days without rice in his meals. So more filipinos means bigger demand for rice.
According to some reports I've read, the Philippine population rate of increase is very high, if not the highest, at least in the Asian region. I heard that by year 2010, we will have some 90 million filipinos (some reports even say that there are three filipino babies born every minutes). Simply put, there is a continuing increase in the number of mouths to feed.
Globally, there also be a shift in world rice demand not only as a result of population increase but also because of developments in other staple foods of other countries. Whereas before, many African and sub-saharan countries had maize for their staple, they are now slowly and gradually shifting to rice because corn is so expensive for them now. This increasing trend in corn prices is a direct effect of the drive of most developed countries for bio-fuels, In fact corn farmers in the US are now enjoying a windfall from this new demand/use for corn. China, where more than half of the total global rice is produced, is also experiencing surging demand for rice. And it is a common knowledge that China's population is almost half of the entire human population. So when China suffers a production shortfall due to natural calamities such as typhoons, heavy rains and floods, it is almost like reducing the entire global rice supply by half.
Population (in the Philippines or globally) is increasing at about three time more than the capacity to produce food, primarily rice.
(NOTE: The most serious rice problem in our country occurred inthe late 60s and early 70s when virtually the entire Central Luzon rice granary was flooded due to a strong typhoon. People then had to mix white corngrits to rice to compensate for the shortage in rice. I think it was at the start of the Marcos administration or at the end of the Macapagal presidency).
NEXT: Rice Imports
It has often been said that the rice issue, or more particularly the failure or success in making and implementing policies on it, could spell the fate of any administration.* This is so because the Philippine population (at least about 85% of it, because some 15% are corn eaters), are rice consumers. Rice is the main component of any filipino meal. Everybody knows about how a Pinoy travelling abroad would go out of his way to look for a chinese or Asian restaurant if only to able to eat rice. Sometimes, its said that some Pinoys feel a little weak after going for days without rice in his meals. So more filipinos means bigger demand for rice.
According to some reports I've read, the Philippine population rate of increase is very high, if not the highest, at least in the Asian region. I heard that by year 2010, we will have some 90 million filipinos (some reports even say that there are three filipino babies born every minutes). Simply put, there is a continuing increase in the number of mouths to feed.
Globally, there also be a shift in world rice demand not only as a result of population increase but also because of developments in other staple foods of other countries. Whereas before, many African and sub-saharan countries had maize for their staple, they are now slowly and gradually shifting to rice because corn is so expensive for them now. This increasing trend in corn prices is a direct effect of the drive of most developed countries for bio-fuels, In fact corn farmers in the US are now enjoying a windfall from this new demand/use for corn. China, where more than half of the total global rice is produced, is also experiencing surging demand for rice. And it is a common knowledge that China's population is almost half of the entire human population. So when China suffers a production shortfall due to natural calamities such as typhoons, heavy rains and floods, it is almost like reducing the entire global rice supply by half.
Population (in the Philippines or globally) is increasing at about three time more than the capacity to produce food, primarily rice.
(NOTE: The most serious rice problem in our country occurred inthe late 60s and early 70s when virtually the entire Central Luzon rice granary was flooded due to a strong typhoon. People then had to mix white corngrits to rice to compensate for the shortage in rice. I think it was at the start of the Marcos administration or at the end of the Macapagal presidency).
NEXT: Rice Imports
Very true, indeed.
ReplyDelete"population is growing at 2.3 percent a year. That’s almost two million additional mouths to feed every year " - Dr. Arsenio Balisacan, PhD (Director of the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture)
ReplyDeleteYou can read more about it and his views on the current rice situation at http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryId=113334
More current rice issue related (local and international) news at:
ReplyDeletehttp://ricenews.irri.org/
Additional reading with some statistics (from experts) at:
ReplyDeletehttp://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20080328-126864/IRRI-RP-rice-harvests-double-that-of-Thailand
So when China suffers a production shortfall due to natural calamities such as typhoons, heavy rains and floods, it is almost like reducing the entire global rice supply by half.----------------------> OUCH!
ReplyDeleteI heard over the news a few days ago how much the Philippines falls short of rice supply in the coming months because of poor production (or as your blog states, too many mouths to feed?). Anyhow, I was irked even more when the NFA official vehemently disproved such news, emphasizing that an agreement has been reached with Vietnam on the importation of rice to meet the demand. To my mind, I thought, "and that's our solution?" I think that the government must come up with a long-term solution to this, or better yet a comprehensive plan. And we are supposed to be an agricultural nation. This is so tragic for Juan dela Cruz.
ReplyDeleteWhat else is new? It has been tragic for Juan dela Cruz ever since I can remember. Sad to say but that's reality.
ReplyDeleteHi Choie. Thanks for the thoughts. Let me just clarify though that it's not the "more mouths to feed" that I think is the problem. It really goes beyond the population issue. What I'm saying is that this is one issue (among a host of others equally significant) that is impacting on the whole rice issue. The blog on importation is on the way, :-)
ReplyDeletebut let's be positive for Juan dela Cruz...a lot of good people are still around here...i am sure we will all surpass all the tragedies...we only want the best for our children...
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping, and I've been waiting for something good to happen BUT it never comes.
ReplyDeleteLet me just put this in perspective, guys. I'm only discussing the rice industry or a portion of the Philippine economy. I'm sure there are other factors, issues or developments (or lack of it) that impact on the over-all well-being of Mr. De La Cruz.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely!
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely!
ReplyDeleteit will....let us not lose hope...please....
ReplyDelete